Crops at Risk: How Climate Change Affects Our Favorite Flavors

With drip irrigation, we can help protect coffee, the livelihoods of millions of farmers worldwide, and… our daily ritual.

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Corn: will we still munch on popcorn in 2080?

Corn is grown on approximately 197 million hectares worldwide, with the USA being the largest producer. This versatile crop is vital for both food and biofuel production, presenting not just economic opportunities but also challenges in balancing food security with industrial demand.

Unpredictable weather patterns driven by climate change are severely affecting global corn yields. Recent research predicts that corn yield could decrease by 31% in the 2050s and by 55% in the 2080s. Okan Basaran, Sales Director at Netafim Turkey, highlights the challenges in Turkey: “Corn is Turkey’s third-largest crop after wheat and barley, crucial for food production and  livestock feed.  However, drought and extreme heat have reduced water sources, including dams and wells, further weakening crop health and resulting in significant yield losses during critical growth stages like tasseling.”

Can we cultivate corn sustainably?

Drip irrigation provides a sustainable solution, optimizing water use and boosting crop productivity. By delivering water and nutrients directly to the roots, this method enhances water efficiency and yields. In Turkey, 2023 corn yields with drip irrigation ranged from 1,400–1,700 kg/decare, compared to 1,000–1,200 kg/decare with traditional irrigation.

Rice: will our rice bowls shrink by 2050?

Rice is the staple food for more than 3.5 billion people, particularly in Asia, where it provides up to 80% of their daily energy intake. Globally, rice is cultivated on over 167 million hectares of land and consumes 34-43% of the world's irrigation water. And another troubling fact… rice fields account for between 10%-15% global methane emission.

Production is increasingly under threat from climate change, with extreme weather events, droughts, and soil degradation taking a toll on yields. In 2023, Italy, which produces 50% of the EU’s rice and many risotto varieties, faced its second consecutive year of drought, warning of significant output declines. Meanwhile, prices in Asia soared to their highest levels in two years due to dry weather, and India halted exports of certain rice varieties after heavy monsoon rains damaged crops. In the US, the Californian rice belt lost 5,300 jobs and $703 million in economic activity in 2022 as droughts cut rice production by half.

And here’s the part that may impact our rice bowl: The Food and Agriculture Organization has estimated that rice production needs to be increased by 40% by the end of the 2030s to meet the rising demand from the ever-increasing population, yet, ​​increasing temperatures could reduce global rice yields by 3.4-10.9% by the end of the century.   Houston, we have a problem!

Cocoa: will we only eat chocolate on birthdays in 2048?

Cocoa is primarily grown in West Africa, with the Ivory Coast and Ghana as the top producers, covering around 10.2 million hectares globally. This crop is essential for the livelihoods of millions of small farmers and for the economies of cocoa-exporting countries.

Cocoa farmers face growing challenges due to climate change, including unpredictable weather patterns and rising temperatures. Changes in rainfall and soil desertification, affect levels of production and the quality of the cocoa crops. To mitigate these effects, the farmers have developed more resilient varieties, grow them using agroforestry and deploy irrigation solutions to nourish to their crops.

Cocoa prices have surged 90% since the start of 2024, after dry weather linked to the El Niño phenomenon significantly impacted crops in West Africa, doubling the cost of cocoa since early 2023. In countries like Ghana and the Ivory Coast, this extreme weather threatens crop yields, heightening concerns over future production.

Benito Munoz, Regional Sales Manager at Netafim Ecuador shares that “In Ecuador, favorable climatic conditions and hybrid cocoa varieties have helped the country become the third-largest exporter of cocoa worldwide. However, climate change is still a major issue, with only 22% of Ecuador’s cocoa-growing area irrigated. The remaining areas rely solely on rainfall, making them vulnerable to changing weather patterns.”

Can we cultivate cocoa sustainably?

Sustainable cocoa farming requires innovative solutions, such as nutrigation; the combination of irrigation and nutrient delivery. Netafim has demonstrated that by using nutrigation, cocoa yields can increase from 0.68 to 2.04 tons per hectare, offering a path to more sustainable and profitable cocoa cultivation even in the face of climate change.

Potatoes: will our fries face a climate crisis?

Potatoes are grown globally, with major production in China, India, USA, part of Europe,  Russia, and Ukraine, covering around 17.8 million hectares of farmland. This versatile and loved food staple is crucial, producing more calories per hectare than any other staple food.

Climate change is creating both droughts and floods, significantly affecting potato yields. Warmer, drier days and long intervals between rain events are reducing water availability, making it harder for farmers to maintain current yields. However, extreme weather can also cause the opposite problem. In 2023, heavy rains in Belgium, France, and the UK left potato fields waterlogged, delaying harvests and causing spoilage. In November, around 15% of the potato crops in the Netherlands and Belgium remained uncollected due to the wet conditions, driving European potato to a 23% price increase.

Can we cultivate potatoes sustainably?

Yechiam Getz, EMEA’s head agronomist explains that “with growing demand for potatoes, precision irrigation is becoming essential, helping farmers maintain yields, improve water efficiency, and ensure a stable supply in the face of climate change."

Leading potato-growing nations like France, the UK, and the Netherlands have already turned to precision irrigation to counter these challenges, increasing yields through drip irrigation and fertigation systems.

Securing Tomorrow’s Harvest in a Changing World

Climate change is posing a growing threat to the crops we rely on every day, From coffee to rice, potatoes, corn, and cocoa, the effects of rising temperatures, erratic weather, and shifting ecosystems are making it harder to maintain stable yields. However, there is hope. Netafim agronomists across the globe are pioneering innovative solutions like drip irrigation and nutrigation to help farmers adapt, boost productivity, and mitigate the risks of climate change. As we move forward, it’s essential to recognize that building resilience in our agricultural systems is crucial to securing the future of our food supply.